kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

For technical questions regarding estimation of single equations, systems, VARs, Factor analysis and State Space Models in EViews. General econometric questions and advice should go in the Econometric Discussions forum.

Moderators: EViews Gareth, EViews Moderator

maragloria
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:09 am

kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

Postby maragloria » Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:06 pm

Hi there,

I have estimated a state-space model for the period 1981Q1 to 2007Q4.

Now, I would like to use the estimates to forecast until 2010Q2 (the signal variables are available only until 2007Q4). I read in some textbooks that the Kalman filter can estimate “missing values” (which in my case would be from 2008Q1 to 2010Q2). Does Eviews 7 perform such forecasts?

Thanks very much for your help.

EViews Glenn
EViews Developer
Posts: 2672
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:17 am

Re: kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

Postby EViews Glenn » Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:57 pm

Use the forecast proc.

maragloria
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:09 am

Re: kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

Postby maragloria » Tue Jul 20, 2010 6:11 am

I did use Proc Forecast but I am getting "NA" for the period 2008q1-2010Q2. Could you please tell me what are the steps to follow? I've tried a few things already but I am getting no results.
Thanks for your reply.

maragloria
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:09 am

Re: kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

Postby maragloria » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:42 am

Hi Glen,

Could you please help me with the forecast?

I am still getting NA with proc forecast.

Do I have to change the sample and range period in the workfile? Itried that and I re-estimated the model but I still got nothing.

Thanks,

Mara

EViews Glenn
EViews Developer
Posts: 2672
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:17 am

Re: kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

Postby EViews Glenn » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:59 am

That's a hard question to answer without seeing your model. A likely possibility is that you have non-state variables in your signal equation which do not have values for the out-of-sample period.

maragloria
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:09 am

Re: kalman filter and forecasting "missing values"

Postby maragloria » Tue Jul 20, 2010 9:17 am

Yes, I do have 4 pre-determined variables in the state specification.
I assume I need to supply values for those variables for the period I want to forecast (UPS!). I'll do that now and see what happens.

Thanks very much for your reply.


Return to “Estimation”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests