forecasting with AR terms
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:15 am
i am sure there is a simple solution, but I can't seem to find it
i estimate an AR(1) model as in y c ar(1). I get the following results.
C -0.2113598143069835
AR(1) 0.7602108576310792
SIGMASQ 1.121348040513439
then I ask EVIEWS for the STATIC in-sample forecasts and I CAN't reproduce what EVIEWS produces as the in sample forecasts
shouldn't forecast(t) = -.2113 + .7602*y(t-1) reproduce the EVIEWS static in-sample forecasts? and yet, for each forecast I am off by a constant value
am i miss-interpreting the constant in this equation?
thanks
Russ
i estimate an AR(1) model as in y c ar(1). I get the following results.
C -0.2113598143069835
AR(1) 0.7602108576310792
SIGMASQ 1.121348040513439
then I ask EVIEWS for the STATIC in-sample forecasts and I CAN't reproduce what EVIEWS produces as the in sample forecasts
shouldn't forecast(t) = -.2113 + .7602*y(t-1) reproduce the EVIEWS static in-sample forecasts? and yet, for each forecast I am off by a constant value
am i miss-interpreting the constant in this equation?
thanks
Russ