BVAR Eviews8 Forecast

For technical questions regarding estimation of single equations, systems, VARs, Factor analysis and State Space Models in EViews. General econometric questions and advice should go in the Econometric Discussions forum.

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forestG
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu May 21, 2015 9:06 am

BVAR Eviews8 Forecast

Postby forestG » Thu May 21, 2015 11:40 am

I am using Eviews8 for estimation of BVAR and I am trying to use these for forecasts. Is Eviews implementing the direct or iterated forecast for this? Also, is the value output the forecast mean or median? I have looked in the user guide but cant find an answer. I am using the solve function for this. Maybe that is wrong.


Thank you in advance.

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
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Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: BVAR Eviews8 Forecast

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu May 21, 2015 12:05 pm

The forecast is implemented in the classical sense - EViews just ignores the fact that the coefficients were estimated using Bayesian methods, and forecasts the same way as it would a classical model.
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forestG
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu May 21, 2015 9:06 am

Re: BVAR Eviews8 Forecast

Postby forestG » Thu May 21, 2015 2:40 pm

Thank you. I was also wondering how the priors are implemented. I have for example
smpl @first @last-!n-!f+!i
var el.bvar(prior=lit,mu1=1,l1=1,l2=0.9,l3=20) 1 2 variable1variable2 variable3
el.makemodel(mod4)

this gives me very differnet forecast compared to a matlab toolbox. Is the first equation set as variable1 =1* variable1(-1) + 0*variable2(-1) + 0*variable3(-1) or is it set differently maybe such as: variable1 =1* variable1(-1) + 1*variable2(-1) + 1*variable3(-1)

EViews Esther
EViews Developer
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:57 am

Re: BVAR Eviews8 Forecast

Postby EViews Esther » Fri May 22, 2015 1:56 pm

The variance of the coefficients is assumed to have the form with the *three* hyperparameters (please see the attachment).

Can you provide me your Matlab script and the name of the toolbox(es) required for the script? I would like to run the script to replicate the result.
Attachments
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