DCCGARCH11

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shuangqing
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Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 2:02 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby shuangqing » Thu May 14, 2015 6:10 pm

Hi trubador. I have two series of interest rate and exchange rate, and would like to use dccgarch11 add-in to know the volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange rate, and the dynamic correlation coefficients of them. Can you show me how to put in the four empty boxes, they are “return series”, “exogenous variables in the mean equation”, “number of AR lags to be used in mean equations”, and “exogenous variables in the variance equation”. Thanks much.

George1993
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 12:31 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby George1993 » Wed May 20, 2015 12:19 am

How to use this add-in to calculate the covariance matrix of errors?

shuangqing
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby shuangqing » Thu May 21, 2015 7:41 am

where is trubador? :cry:

trubador
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby trubador » Sat May 23, 2015 2:52 pm

George1993 wrote:How to use this add-in to calculate the covariance matrix of errors?

You can generate the covariance series by exploiting their statistical relationship to variance and correlation series.

trubador
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby trubador » Sat May 23, 2015 2:56 pm

shuangqing wrote:Hi trubador. I have two series of interest rate and exchange rate, and would like to use dccgarch11 add-in to know the volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange rate, and the dynamic correlation coefficients of them. Can you show me how to put in the four empty boxes, they are “return series”, “exogenous variables in the mean equation”, “number of AR lags to be used in mean equations”, and “exogenous variables in the variance equation”. Thanks much.

Have you seen the documentation that comes with the add-in?

alexlooyc
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun May 24, 2015 6:38 pm

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby alexlooyc » Mon May 25, 2015 1:33 am

Hi Trubador, I am trying to find out the DCC for the tourism demand for singapore, south korea and thailand from Indonesia. However, my estimates from the DCC-GARCH(1,1) are not making sense. I get a single result instead of a time-varying correlation coefficient.Am i estimating it correctly using the add in?

For the mean eqn; I added 11 dummy monthly variables and AR(2) as encouraged by past literature.

I have attached the workfile too!Pls assist!Thanks!
Attachments
indonproj.wf1
(82.5 KiB) Downloaded 193 times

trubador
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby trubador » Mon May 25, 2015 2:03 am

alexlooyc wrote:Hi Trubador, I am trying to find out the DCC for the tourism demand for singapore, south korea and thailand from Indonesia. However, my estimates from the DCC-GARCH(1,1) are not making sense. I get a single result instead of a time-varying correlation coefficient.Am i estimating it correctly using the add in?

For the mean eqn; I added 11 dummy monthly variables and AR(2) as encouraged by past literature.

I have attached the workfile too!Pls assist!Thanks!


The output (i.e. dccout01) clearly indicates that the optimization was not successful. If you carefully examine your univariate GARCH estimates, you should see that the GARCH effects are very weak.

Please read the previous posts in this thread. We have had similar discussions before.

shuangqing
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 2:02 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby shuangqing » Thu May 28, 2015 5:34 am

trubador wrote:
shuangqing wrote:Hi trubador. I have two series of interest rate and exchange rate, and would like to use dccgarch11 add-in to know the volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange rate, and the dynamic correlation coefficients of them. Can you show me how to put in the four empty boxes, they are “return series”, “exogenous variables in the mean equation”, “number of AR lags to be used in mean equations”, and “exogenous variables in the variance equation”. Thanks much.

Have you seen the documentation that comes with the add-in?

Now I have got the documentation,and settled the problem. Think you, trubador.

Ivan10
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 9:16 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby Ivan10 » Thu May 28, 2015 9:19 am

Hi Trubador,

I have one question. I am using two time series in the add-in.

One of the two is normally distributed, the other is not (given by Jarque-Bera)

Do you suggest using Normal or T_Stud distribution for this specific case? Thank you

trubador
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby trubador » Thu May 28, 2015 1:40 pm

Ivan10 wrote:Hi Trubador,

I have one question. I am using two time series in the add-in.

One of the two is normally distributed, the other is not (given by Jarque-Bera)

Do you suggest using Normal or T_Stud distribution for this specific case? Thank you

There is nothing specific here. These distributions are fit to residuals, not to the series. So, you can estimate the model with the assumption of normal distribution and then check the (standardized) residuals to verify this. You can also test alternative empirical distributions to identify the best fit.

markbaseball
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun May 31, 2015 12:59 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby markbaseball » Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:20 am

Dear trubador:
I'm trying to use dcc add-in to perform my reaserch ,but I theta1 theta2 can't optimize, but I don't know why ?
I have check stationary and time trend.
Attachments
比特幣.wf1
(100.84 KiB) Downloaded 144 times

trubador
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby trubador » Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:17 am

markbaseball wrote:Dear trubador:
I'm trying to use dcc add-in to perform my reaserch ,but I theta1 theta2 can't optimize, but I don't know why ?
I have check stationary and time trend.

Have you read the previous posts? For instance:
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=9677&start=15#p36929
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=9677&start=45#p42744
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=9677&start=45#p42822

markbaseball
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun May 31, 2015 12:59 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby markbaseball » Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:00 pm

I have read previous post .
if I don't put any exogeonus in the model, then I can get the right theta1 and theta2.

but if I put exogenous variable,I still can't get the right theta1 and theata 2

trubador
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Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby trubador » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:58 am

trubador wrote:1) Since this is a two-step model, you should check the first step (i.e. estimation of univariate GARCH models) to see if everything is OK. Try alternative GARCH models.
2) Model may become ill-defined or inconsistent after including an exogenous variable or an AR term. Try dropping them or find better RHS variables.
3) Starting values of coefficients may be too far from an optimal solution. Try different initial parameter values (i.e. theta vector).
4) Correlation targeting may be too restrictive. Try unchecking this option.
5) Sample period may not be appropriate to carry out such an analysis. Try adjusting the sample.
6) Optimization algorithm may perform poorly. Try other alternatives.
7) Algorithms may fall out the domain of estimation parameters. Try optimizing the squared coefficients.

Such models are nonlinear in nature and therefore there is no guarantee that they will always converge and yield proper estimation results. It really needs "your" time and effort to get it work.

selmrog
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2015 5:20 am

Re: DCCGARCH11

Postby selmrog » Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:32 am

Hi Trubador,
I used the add-in for 5 time series. I think the results are fine?! I attached the work file. My question is, if its possible to get the variance covariance matrix for the time varying correlations to use the matrix for portfolio optimization. I did get it right that the rho_12_01 is the correlation between series 1 and 2 and so on?

Thank you very much for you help!!
Attachments
model_results_forum.WF1
(468.44 KiB) Downloaded 216 times


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