DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

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Econoforecast
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:25 pm

Re: DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

Postby Econoforecast » Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:45 am

EViews Gareth wrote:Probabilities of the alternative hypotheses (that forecast 1 differs in accuracy from forecast 2, forecast 1 is less accurate, forecast 2 is more accurate).

Thank you, so would this be correct. Would appreciate some clarification.

<>prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: The forecasts do not have the same accuracy

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, both forecasts have the same accuracy


>Prob
H0: Forecast 1 is more accurate than Forecast 2
H1: Forecast 1 is less accurate than forecast 2

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Forecast 1 is more accurate than Forecast 2

<Prob
H0: Forecast 2 is less accurate than Forecast 1
H1: Forecast 2 is more accurate than Forecast 1

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Forecast 2 is less accurate than Forecast 1

EViews Gareth
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Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

Postby EViews Gareth » Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:58 am

The Null is the same in all three.
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Econoforecast
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:25 pm

Re: DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

Postby Econoforecast » Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:12 am

EViews Gareth wrote:The Null is the same in all three.

Ok thanks, but the rest of my post is correct?

Updated

<>prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: The forecasts do not have the same accuracy

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, both forecasts have the same accuracy


>Prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: Forecast 1 is less accurate than forecast 2

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Both Forecasts have the same accuracy

<Prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: Forecast 2 is more accurate than Forecast 1

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Both Forecasts have the same accuracy


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