DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

Moderators: EViews Gareth, EViews Moderator, EViews Esther

Econoforecast
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:25 pm

Re: DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

EViews Gareth wrote:Probabilities of the alternative hypotheses (that forecast 1 differs in accuracy from forecast 2, forecast 1 is less accurate, forecast 2 is more accurate).

Thank you, so would this be correct. Would appreciate some clarification.

<>prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: The forecasts do not have the same accuracy

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, both forecasts have the same accuracy

>Prob
H0: Forecast 1 is more accurate than Forecast 2
H1: Forecast 1 is less accurate than forecast 2

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Forecast 1 is more accurate than Forecast 2

<Prob
H0: Forecast 2 is less accurate than Forecast 1
H1: Forecast 2 is more accurate than Forecast 1

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Forecast 2 is less accurate than Forecast 1

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 11289
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

The Null is the same in all three.

Econoforecast
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:25 pm

Re: DMtest - Diebold-Mariano Forecast Evaluation Test

EViews Gareth wrote:The Null is the same in all three.

Ok thanks, but the rest of my post is correct?

Updated

<>prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: The forecasts do not have the same accuracy

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, both forecasts have the same accuracy

>Prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: Forecast 1 is less accurate than forecast 2

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Both Forecasts have the same accuracy

<Prob
H0: Both Forecasts have the same accuracy
H1: Forecast 2 is more accurate than Forecast 1

<0.05, reject null, accept alternative hypothesis
>0.05 accept null, Both Forecasts have the same accuracy