Hi all,

I just ran a VEC with 2 endogenous and 5 exogenous variables. Now I wonder how I should interpret the numbers for my exogenous variables (not the standard error or t-statistics)? What does the minus sign stand for? How big should the number be to be considered significant? Below are the results. Thank you in advance!

Vector Error Correction Estimates

Date: 06/03/09 Time: 10:27

Sample (adjusted): 1994 2007

Included observations: 14 after adjustments

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1

GDPGROWTH(-1) 1.000000

DEXPGDP(-1) -1.682983

(0.22172)

[-7.59050]

C 0.174989

Error Correction: D(GDPGROWTH) D(DEXPGDP)

CointEq1 0.197145 1.053958

(0.28769) (0.19525)

[ 0.68526] [ 5.39793]

C -0.097634 0.160050

(0.39213) (0.26613)

[-0.24899] [ 0.60140]

EXRATE 0.006276 -0.005289

(0.00584) (0.00396)

[ 1.07489] [-1.33461]

HDI 0.302065 -0.085976

(0.56237) (0.38167)

[ 0.53713] [-0.22526]

INFLATION 0.084941 0.671529

(0.45613) (0.30957)

[ 0.18622] [ 2.16925]

INVESTMENTS -0.640612 -0.635130

(0.29657) (0.20128)

[-2.16008] [-3.15552]

SAVINGS 0.088283 0.185195

(0.08645) (0.05867)

[ 1.02122] [ 3.15649]

R-squared 0.536183 0.828988

Adj. R-squared 0.138626 0.682406

Sum sq. resids 0.002865 0.001320

S.E. equation 0.020230 0.013730

F-statistic 1.348696 5.655452

Log likelihood 39.59491 45.02132

Akaike AIC -4.656416 -5.431618

Schwarz SC -4.336887 -5.112089

Mean dependent 0.003207 -0.000614

S.D. dependent 0.021798 0.024363

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 4.01E-08

Determinant resid covariance 1.00E-08

Log likelihood 89.20401

Akaike information criterion -10.45772

Schwarz criterion -9.727364