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Hi,

i'm estimating an unrestricted VAR and right now I went thought the impulse response function. I don't understand how to read the significance of the IRF. For example I don't understand on which basis from the IRF graph I can say that real GDP response to oil price shock is whether significant or insignificant.

Thanks.

If the confidence interval (or band) does not contain zero (horizontal axis) then it is statistically significant.

Thank you for your answer. I'm still a little bit confused about it. So can I ask you to give me an example based one these impulse responses? Thanks

dlogrgdp to dlogop: impulse responses are insignificant for all periods
dlogop to dlogop: impulse responses are significant for 1st period (impact period)
dlogstir to dlogop: impulse responses are significant for 2nd period
dlogltir to dlogop: impulse responses are significant for 1st period (impact period)

Thank you so much!

Hi,

just wondering. What does it mean when it's insignificant? is it meaningless then??

All it means is that there is not strong statistical evidence that the response is different from zero.

@dakila: Is there any textbook or other material that I can refer to on how to interpret IRF confidence intervals as you did? Thanks very much for your help.

As requested, this link contains information on the estimation and interpretation of IRFs (Impulse Responses) for both VAR and VECM: https://spureconomics.com/impulse-response-functions-after-var-and-vecm/

The interpretation is quite straightforward, although it does depend on how the IRFs are computed. Generally, they are computed using shocks in terms of Standard Deviation or in terms of absolute values of the variables.

Hello everyone
I have a question on the same matter
What is the link between causality, PVAR findings, and impulse response (IRF) in PVAR? If the causality shows a significant bidirectional relationship between X and Y variables, do the IRF should reflect the same? Also, if the PVAR results show X has a significant impact on Y, do the IRF should reflect the same?
Feedback is highly appreciated