Model Solve Static, Dynamic& Fit: producing the same result
Posted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:52 am
Hi,
I am trying to check the accuracy of my model. I have tried to produce one-step ahead, dynamic and fit forecasts within the sample, and they all produce the same estimates. I am assuming that I am missing something in the codes, but I have tried to compute them manually and the same happens. Please see the codes below ( I am making a new model for each of the forecasts type because I only discovered how to do it with the command "scenario" later on, but I have again tried creating different scenario and they continue to produce the same estimates no matter what the d= identifity is[code][/code]).
Thanks in advance,
Marta
' MODEL SOLUTION: ACCURACY OF THE MODEL
' a) ONE-STEP FORECAST- ESTIMATION FIT:
_sys_2sls.makemodel(_m_onestep)
_m_onestep.solve (d=s)
_m_onestep.makegraph(a,g=v,c) gr_onestep @endog
gr_onestep.display
' b) MULTI-STEP FORECASTS (OUT-OF-SAMPLE) FORECASTS from a sub-sample
smpl @last-60 @last
_sys_2sls.makemodel(_m_dynamic)
_m_dynamic.solve(d=d)
_m_dynamic.makegraph(a,c,g=v) gr_dynamic @endog
rename *lr_0 *lr_dynamic
gr_dynamic.display
' c) FIT ESTIMATION: values of the current period are used for the estimation. It is used to examine the fie of each of teh equation in the model when considered separately - ignoring interdependencies.
smpl @all
_sys_2sls.makemodel(_m_fit)
_m_fit.solve (d=f) ' d = dynamicforecasts.
_m_fit.makegraph(a,c,g=v) gr_fit @endog
rename *lr_0 *lr_fit
gr_fit.display
I am trying to check the accuracy of my model. I have tried to produce one-step ahead, dynamic and fit forecasts within the sample, and they all produce the same estimates. I am assuming that I am missing something in the codes, but I have tried to compute them manually and the same happens. Please see the codes below ( I am making a new model for each of the forecasts type because I only discovered how to do it with the command "scenario" later on, but I have again tried creating different scenario and they continue to produce the same estimates no matter what the d= identifity is[code][/code]).
Thanks in advance,
Marta
' MODEL SOLUTION: ACCURACY OF THE MODEL
' a) ONE-STEP FORECAST- ESTIMATION FIT:
_sys_2sls.makemodel(_m_onestep)
_m_onestep.solve (d=s)
_m_onestep.makegraph(a,g=v,c) gr_onestep @endog
gr_onestep.display
' b) MULTI-STEP FORECASTS (OUT-OF-SAMPLE) FORECASTS from a sub-sample
smpl @last-60 @last
_sys_2sls.makemodel(_m_dynamic)
_m_dynamic.solve(d=d)
_m_dynamic.makegraph(a,c,g=v) gr_dynamic @endog
rename *lr_0 *lr_dynamic
gr_dynamic.display
' c) FIT ESTIMATION: values of the current period are used for the estimation. It is used to examine the fie of each of teh equation in the model when considered separately - ignoring interdependencies.
smpl @all
_sys_2sls.makemodel(_m_fit)
_m_fit.solve (d=f) ' d = dynamicforecasts.
_m_fit.makegraph(a,c,g=v) gr_fit @endog
rename *lr_0 *lr_fit
gr_fit.display