Search found 24 matches

by karakilamaravilla
Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

One suggestion I made earlier was to include month dummies. But I suspect the most important advice is to look carefully about Gareth's comment on something being wrong with the data, both the large number of 1s for some skus and the data not matching the Excel file. Startz, These are particular SK...
by karakilamaravilla
Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

EViews Gareth wrote:Unfortunately, I do not give econometric advice.


Thank you anyway!
by karakilamaravilla
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

Before delving too deeply into this, I'll point out a couple of things. First you might want to structure your workfile as a dated workfile. Going on the information you gave (it starts in 2014, the series "mes" is month, and "salida_del_mes" is day of the month), you can use th...
by karakilamaravilla
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

It's nice of you to share all this information. Can you explain the word "quasivariation?" I'm not familiar with it. http://www.uv.es/webgid/Descriptiva/Imagen17.jpg A measure that minimizes the square of the error minus the average error. Remember that the error in my model is given by E...
by karakilamaravilla
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

One small addition to Gareth's points. I think the "day of the month" variable" is just a sequence number within the month. In other words, "1" might sometimes be the first observation but the second day of the month. Since you know the day of the week, you could probably m...
by karakilamaravilla
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

Before delving too deeply into this, I'll point out a couple of things. First you might want to structure your workfile as a dated workfile. Going on the information you gave (it starts in 2014, the series "mes" is month, and "salida_del_mes" is day of the month), you can use th...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

By the way, this is an interesting example. Perhaps it's something I could use in my undergraduate econometrics class. If you wouldn't mind, can you say a little more about where the data is from and what the objective of the forecast is? This attachment also has the series: 1. Stock of each sku pe...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

By the way, this is an interesting example. Perhaps it's something I could use in my undergraduate econometrics class. If you wouldn't mind, can you say a little more about where the data is from and what the objective of the forecast is? This attachment also has the series: 1. Stock of each sku pe...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

By the way, this is an interesting example. Perhaps it's something I could use in my undergraduate econometrics class. If you wouldn't mind, can you say a little more about where the data is from and what the objective of the forecast is? The data come from the sales made in the region of Valparaís...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

I messed around a little with sku1, just as an example. You can get some improvement in forecasting by including a lagged value of the sku and also a time trend. I am pretty sure you could also get improvement by including month dummies, but you'd need to create a dated workfile for that. Thank you...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

Is this data you can post? salida_del_mes : Corresponds to the day of the month that there was sale (it is different from 30 or 31 always smaller since it is not sold on Sundays or holidays). Lunes : Corresponds 1 if it is Monday, 0 if it is another day Martes : Corresponds 1 if it is Tuesday, 0 if...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Re: Coca cola demand forecast (models)

startz wrote:Is this data you can post?
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Data Manipulation
Topic: basic problem
Replies: 6
Views: 4934

Re: basic problem

EViews Matt wrote:Oops, when testing I used a series instead of a matrix and forgot to change the syntax back. Replace "@elem(__best_model, @str(!c))" with what you had originally, "__best model(!c, 1)".


Thanks Matt

The difference was clear to me!
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Coca cola demand forecast (models)
Replies: 24
Views: 14926

Coca cola demand forecast (models)

Hello, I have a database of 84 different products (sku's from a Coca-Cola bottler). The database consists of the demand for each product from 01/01/2014 to 04/30/2017 day per day. What types of models could you use to predict next day demand? I have used moving averages and exponential smoothing (al...
by karakilamaravilla
Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Data Manipulation
Topic: basic problem
Replies: 6
Views: 4934

Re: basic problem

You've got the right idea. Here are a few changes: matrix __resultados = @sort(@uniquevals(__best_model),"a") matrix(__resultados.@rows, 2) __resultados for !i = 1 to __resultados.@rows !iden = 0 for !c = 1 to @obsrange if @elem(__best_model, @str(!c)) = __resultados(!i, 1) then !iden = 1...

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