Search found 31 matches

by brennan6738
Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:59 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: Dynamic Forecast
Replies: 3
Views: 4792

Re: Dynamic Forecast

Can someone tell me where in the Eviews User Guide I can learn more about modeling volatility?
by brennan6738
Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:12 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: Dynamic Forecast
Replies: 3
Views: 4792

Dynamic Forecast

Can someone tell me if there is a setting I can change when I creaste a Dynamic forecast to capture the volatility of a series? I have uses an ARMA(1,1) to model the series attached (it is daily data) but the forecast just gives me this straight line. I see a Static forecast is more realistic, but I...
by brennan6738
Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:46 pm
Forum: Models
Topic: Static Forecast
Replies: 1
Views: 4099

Static Forecast

Does anyone know if there is a way to use the Static Forecast option for multiple periods forward? When I use teh Dynamic option I get a forecast that does not make sense, but when I use the Static option the Forecast is more realistic.
by brennan6738
Wed Jan 19, 2011 6:48 pm
Forum: General Information and Tips and Tricks
Topic: Outbox
Replies: 1
Views: 2984

Outbox

Does anyone know how to get messages to send that have been sitting in your Outbox for long periods of time and never seemed to get sent?
by brennan6738
Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:21 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: GARCH Models
Replies: 1
Views: 3497

GARCH Models

Does anyone know why there is no Make Model option under Proc when you are estimating a GARCH Model? Also, when you are making a model that is both Stochastic and Static is there a way to get Eviews to forecast multiple periods forward rather than just one period at a time?
by brennan6738
Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:59 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: GARCH Conditional Standard Deviation
Replies: 1
Views: 4248

GARCH Conditional Standard Deviation

Can someone tell me exactly how I can interpret the Standard Deviation output from a GARCH model (attached)?
STDEV.gif
STDEV.gif (5.7 KiB) Viewed 4225 times
Is that an annualized Standard Deviaition? Also, is there a way to get the output in a table?
by brennan6738
Thu Jan 13, 2011 1:28 pm
Forum: Models
Topic: Deterministic vs. Stochastic and Static vs. Dynamic
Replies: 0
Views: 4125

Deterministic vs. Stochastic and Static vs. Dynamic

I am trying to model and forecast some quity indices using daily data. I woudl think when I create the model I want to use the Static option (as equity returns I believe will be independent of time, so using the Dynamic option would not seem to make sense). I am not quite as sure about the Determini...
by brennan6738
Thu Jan 13, 2011 11:45 am
Forum: Estimation
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 2
Views: 3129

GARCH

Does anyone know how to pull the volatility forecast from a GARCH into a table? Also, if I want to get what the average volatility is assumed to be by the model do I just use the last data point of the GARCH forecast or do i use teh average using all data points over the forecast period?
by brennan6738
Wed Jan 12, 2011 10:58 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: Dynamic & Static Forecasting
Replies: 1
Views: 5360

Dynamic & Static Forecasting

I am trying to Forecast an ARMA model using daily data going out one year (250 data points). I want to use the Static forecast, but it appears as though I have to run the model and forecast one dy at a time. Is there a way around that? When I use the Dynamic option that just sems to extrapolate a st...
by brennan6738
Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:11 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Short Term Interest Rate ARMA
Replies: 1
Views: 2823

Short Term Interest Rate ARMA

I am trying to forecast the LIBOR-OIS rate using monthly data going back to 2003. The SIC seems to suggest an ARMA(1,0) or ARMA(1,1). I have tried various models, and they consistently show the rate turning negative. I think it's a possibility, but highly unlikely. Is there a way to put a lower boun...
by brennan6738
Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:56 pm
Forum: Programming
Topic: R-Squared Output
Replies: 1
Views: 2738

R-Squared Output

Does anyone know how to make this output come out in one work file on one line only? I get multiple workfiles with a whole row of data. smpl 1999M12 2009M12 equation model11.ls cncl c unemp(-1) hpi(-1) equation model22.ls cncl c unemp(-2) hpi(-2) equation model33.ls cncl c unemp(-3) hpi(-3) equation...
by brennan6738
Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:23 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Model Solution Dynamics
Replies: 2
Views: 3972

Model Solution Dynamics

Does anyone know if there is a test to determine whether it is best to model a solution in a VAR model as Dynamic or Static? I am modeling some interest rates. I seem to come up with the same forecast for short term rates, but for long term rates the models give me significantly different forecasts....
by brennan6738
Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:24 pm
Forum: Programming
Topic: ARMA Program
Replies: 2
Views: 6911

ARMA Program

Does anyone know if there is a way to set the sample size within a program? I have a program set up that calculates the AIC and SIC for various ARMA models, but I believe I need to shorten the sample (from the start) so that the AIC and SIC will be comparable with the degrees of freedom. My program ...
by brennan6738
Sat Dec 05, 2009 5:56 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: ARMA
Replies: 1
Views: 2661

ARMA

Doe anyone know what it means when you run an ARMA and no values populate for the standard error, t-statistic and probability? I use the AIC and SIC and they both select an ARMA(4,3). When I run the model none of those values show up. I don't think its the size (when I add a fourth MA term I get tho...
by brennan6738
Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:49 am
Forum: Estimation
Topic: VECM
Replies: 0
Views: 1992

VECM

Does anyone know how to lag the Cointegrating Equation in a VECM?

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